The Modern Day Strategy to Wagering on NCAA Football

Back in the mid-1990s, the easiest way to wager on NCAA football was placing parlay bets on the top 3 teams in the nation. I believe back then, Nebraska, Florida, and Notre Dame were typically in the top 5. Even though very few gamblers utilized this strategy, those who did were very successful. In 2015 and beyond, I would never consider this approach.

The main reason is because the powerhouse teams in the nineties were stacked with talent. They provided potential prospects the opportunity to play for an elite team, which more visible, and enhanced a college player’s chances of going pro. The recruiting was more “in-house” or within the state, so kids were being groomed from the Pee-Wee Leagues.

betting NCAA football

Over time, smaller Division I colleges were able to steal a player here and there, and these teams were getting better. If we saw small schools have a major upset it was a huge ordeal. Today, it’s still exciting when the smaller teams win, but because of their status in the NCAA. The truth is teams like Boise State and TCU are becoming more consistent. Plus, they are able to compete with the bigger schools.

Wagering in the 21st Century

Instead of sticking with the constant power teams, the best strategy today is to find the best defenses. The old adage “Defense Wins Championships” is more like “Defense Helps You Win Money” in the betting world. One of the most successful game plans I have taken over the last 5 years is playing parlays with the top 3 defense against the 3 worst offenses (for that particular week in the season). However, it’s important to understand that I do not wager like this until at least week 5 of the season. By this time you have a good indication how real the stats are at the time.

For instance, the top 3 defenses in 2014 belonged to Clemson, Penn State, and Stanford (total defense). All three teams held their opponents to under 300 yards per game on average. Most importantly, teams like Clemson hit their stride in the middle of the season. I believe they had a six-game winning streak, and during that time their opponents averaged only 9 points per game. If you paired them with the best defenses against the worst offense during that winning streak, you won money. Read More

Could You Become a Professional Punter?

Betting on all of the games every week might sound like fun, but it’s only fun because you don’t have to stake your livelihood on the outcomes. But for a very small part of the punter pool there is an elite class of bettor that does exactly that. When they win, they win big and they get to enjoy a very nice lifestyle. Yet when they lose, it feels like the worst feeling in the world. They’re not able to take care of their families, and they have to seek other forms of employment to make ends meet. This attracts a very specific personality: the person with everything on the line who doesn’t want to lose anything.

Are you someone that wants to make sure that they win before anything else? Read on to see if you could become a professional punter.

The thing about professional punters of all stripes is that they really read into the “guts” of the game. They study as much data as possible to make their decision. They’re very protective about the information they have, because they don’t want it used against them by rivals. It’s a cutthroat world where a little information could lead to a lot of money. You have to not only have nerves of steel, but you have to trust that your way of doing things is really the best way to do them.

Professional Punter

The ultimate goal for some of these professionals is to get wealthy investors to buy into their offerings. The small time punter won’t be able to get massive gains overnight, but they will be able to rise up the ranks if they’re willing to work for it. In fact, many of the people that rise to the top of the professional gambling field have worked for bookmakers or investment firms. They understand risk and they embrace it instead of being afraid to make moves.

The professionals use algorithms, sophisticated logical and mathematical ways to predict winners.

This is a fascinating world, but it carries some lessons for the average punter looking to make some more money. How can you get more sophisticated about your own bets? If you aren’t crunching statistics, would you be willing to do so? How much money can you put into your operating? The more you bet, the more you can grow your money over time.

Losing the sentiment is very important. The professional punter doesn’t have time to worry about whether they’re loyal to the team they grew up watching. They care about the bottom line, and that’s it. So if you have similar dreams of making it big, you need to make sure that you’re following suit to some degree.

The Emotional Factors That Effect Sports Betting

Oh, to live in a world of machines. If we lived in a world of machines playing against other machines, then sports betting would really be a piece of cake. Yet we are betting on sporting events played by humans. This means that you really can’t just assume all conditions will be perfect. Since humans have so many different factors they carry around, it’s only natural that this would affect their actual playing abilities. Every team is going to have moments where they’re not going to be at their best.

The handicapper isn’t fazed by the fact that the game is played by humans. The handicapper, with a little bit of skill and knowledge, can spin this to their favor. It’s all about making sure that you look for signs that point to a team that can have above average performance, or signs that point to a team that will deliver a lackluster performance. Either way, there’s profit to be made.

Getting deep into handicapping can definitely raise the chances of making money from all of your wagers. This means that you can’t give in to emotion. Betting with your gut or betting on what other people think is popular is a sure way to end up losing your bankroll for the season. If you’ve given yourself a set limit every season, then it goes without saying that you really do need to make it work as much as possible.

What you have to start with when it comes to figuring out a team is their emotional state. If you’re going to handicap a game, you need to figure out what type of situation the team is in. There are essentially four situations that are agreed upon for teams across the board, regardless of sport: redemption, revenge, letdown, and look-ahead.

Sports Betting

The Redemption Situation

The redemption situation is when a team has really done poorly in the previous game. They come to the field fresh, looking to prove themselves worthy in the next game. This can be incredibly profitable, but you have to make sure that you work out whether or not it’s worth pursuing.

The Revenge Situation

This one is our favorite, as the revenge games are the ones where a team has lost against another *equal* team lost the last time the two teams met. In order for this to be profitable, the team has to looking for revenge for the loss, as well as have the power to beat the other team. If you’re looking at a weaker team that can’t fight back, then it’s really not a revenge situation worth betting on.

You want to tread carefully on this one, because revenge games attract a lot of media attention and thus speculation. This can eat into your profitability in terms of odds.

The Letdown Situation

The letdown situation is when a team is coming off a big game. If they are coming from a tough loss against a better opponent, then they aren’t in great spirits. They feel bummed. On the other hand, if they tackled a bigger opponent and won, then they’re elated and they might perform a little better than what you expected.

The Look-Ahead Situation

A look-ahead situation occurs when a team has a big contest the game after its upcoming game. So if you have two top teams going head to head after playing a weaker team, then you know that you might want to get into the action.

Looking at these factors will help you pick better teams and take advantage of situations that you might not have thought about previously. Good luck!

Money Management 101: Part One

So many gamblers fail, because they fail to manage their money wisely. The adage says, “a fool and his money are quickly parted”. This adage really hits the nail on the head for those seeking to gamble for fun, profit or both. Money management is one of those buzz words in gambling (especially sports betting) that is thrown around, but never fully explained. In fact, I would venture to say that many people don´t understand what all it entails and more probably don´t know how to manage their money well.

Money management is one of those practices that can be shallow or extremely deep and complex. The very casual gambler most likely wants a simplified approach. However, the consistent gambler needs a more detailed and well thought out approach to money management if he or she is going to have a shot at being successful over the long run. In the end, small mistakes or loose plays can gobble up any profit that was made and turn a winning gambler into a break-even or possibly losing gambler.

Money Management

Today we are going to start a mini-series on the topic of money management. I don´t know how long the series will go – perhaps just one more installment. I am going to try and keep each piece bite sized – about 300-400 words. This purpose of this first piece is to simply get you acquainted with money management and illustrate how important it is. In the next installment, we will begin to go over money management in more detail, including formulas you can use to manage your money wiser.

Many people think that money management is solely about increasing or decreasing your bet size, but it is much more than that. It all starts with your bankroll. Your bankroll determines what you can and can´t do in the casino, poker room, sports book and so forth. For those not familiar with the term, your bankroll is the amount of money you are willing to lose gambling. It is the source of all money management practices and the very first thing you must decide on.

The casual gambler (especially when sports gambling) will want to at least set up a bankroll for the day he or she is about to play. A better strategy is to come up with an amount for the entire month or year and go from there. A sports bettor should set up a bankroll for an entire season. For example, if you were going to bet on football games at a sportsbook often, you should create a bankroll for the whole season. Once that bankroll is gone, you are done until the next season. Some sports bettors ”perhaps many” bet on different types of sports and like to have one main bankroll. All bets go through that bankroll and when it is gone, betting is done for the calendar year.

As you can see, there is more to money management than simply making a proper bet. A lot of thought and time begins with the bankroll. In our next installment, we will begin going deeper with the bankroll and I will give you some simple formulas to use. All of the information I am giving you is based on my own experience as a winning gambler – a rare breed. In order to join these ranks, you must master your money first and foremost. Without this solid foundation, there´s little hope of turning a profit.

Arsenal’s English Core

The year was 2006. Arsenal had just beaten Real Madrid against all the odds in the Champions League round of sixteen. West Ham manager at the time, Alan Pardew hit out at the Arsenal team which accomplished the feat, noting the lack of Englishmen in the squad:

“I saw a headline saying Arsenal are flying the flag for Britain. I kind of wondered where that British involvement actually was when I looked at their team. It’s important that top clubs don’t lose sight of the fact that it’s the English Premier League and English players should be involved.”

Arsene Wenger responded by saying he judged players based on their talent, not on their passport. In a sense, you may feel Wenger would have liked to have more English talent at his disposal at the time, however, having moved to the Emirates Stadium, with a limited budget, it was hard to get English talent for value.

Fast forward eight years, and the tables have turned in dramatic fashion. Pardew, now managing Newcastle, has less first team English players than Wenger. In fact, Pardew has all but copied Wenger’s initial transfer strategy by buying cheap French players and selling them for a profit. Newcastle are virtually a French team now and would have had more French players had they not sold Romain Amalfitano, Yohan Cabaye and Mathieu Debuchy earlier in the year.

Wenger meanwhile, has not only signed a host of British talent simply because of the homegrown rule but because one of more reason – they are simply more loyal.

“We look first at quality. If the quality is local, it is of course even better because it gives you more guarantee of stability because the players who are English who play for Arsenal are more likely to stay for a longer term than foreign players.”

Having lost valuable key players in Cesc Fabregas, Samir Nasri and Robin van Persie to name a few over the years, Wenger has had to constantly rebuild his sides in search of trophies.

The notion that British players would be more loyal is true – they will grow with the club, gain an affinity and love for the club and are less likely to leave to say, a foreign league for big bucks unless you’re Gareth Bale. Even if there was a situation where a British player wanted to leave to another top English club, given the homegrown rule and inflation of local talent, Arsenal would receive bigger profits than they would with a foreign player as well.

Wenger now has the likes of Theo Walcott, Jack Wilshere, Aaron Ramsey, Calum Chambers, Danny Welbeck, Kieran Gibbs and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain at his disposal, with Carl Jenkinson out on loan. These players are forming the so called British core that Wenger had been craving and with most of them having played together for a while, the future is definitely bright for Arsenal.

Having won the FA Cup and Community Shield this year, those trophies have lifted a huge monkey off the players’ back and they can now challenge for more cups – and the British core will certainly play a huge role when it comes to future honours.