Getting the Value – a Dummies Guide

Most pro-punters’ betting strategy is simple — they bet when they think that a selection is a bigger price than it should be.

Conversely most gamblers make the mistake of trying to back winners, without taking the odds of reward into account. “A 6/4 winner is better than a 20/1 loser,” they say, which, in fairness, is true. But if you can back enough selections at 20/1 which really should be 8/1 then, in the long run, you will make a profit. That’s the key. It’s all about the odds.

Value bet

The Odds Explained

Take a bag of 10 coloured balls, four blue, three red, two green, one yellow. If you draw one ball at random, there are four chances in 10 that it will be blue, and there are six chances in 10 that it won’t be blue. Therefore, the true odds of drawing a blue ball are 6/4.

There are three chances in 10 that the ball will be red (true odds of 7/3), two chances in 10 that the ball will be green (true odds of 8/2 or 4/1), and one chance in 10 that the ball will be yellow (true odds of 9/1).

If you were offered odds of 6/1 about the ball being green, that is a bet that you should have. It doesn’t mean that the drawn ball is more likely to be green than it is to be blue or red, it just means that odds of 6/1 are too big. On average, a green ball will come out once in every five draws and, if you can consistently bet on that outcome at 6/1, in the long run you will make a significant profit.

The Edge

The edge in betting lies in going “Against the Crowd”, an idea that Alan Potts encapsulated in his 1995 book of that title.

Contrary to popular perception, the odds are determined these days by punters, not by bookmakers. Just have a look at the mid-price point on any betting exchange market on a Friday night and compare it with bookmakers’ Saturday morning prices.
Consequently, when you bet these days, even if you do not bet on the exchanges, you are actually betting against other punters, not against the bookmaker. If you can take a view that is contrary to that of the majority, and if your opinion is well informed and accurate, then, in the long run, you should make a profit.


Crucial to this strategy is the accuracy of the assessment of a horse, greyhound, or football team’s chances of winning. Consequently, you should bet on form, not on information.

But most punters love to get the inside track, they love to hear about a horse who is catching pigeons at home, or a football team that may field a lot of reserves in a first team match and should therefore be opposed.

Professionals, for the most part, prefer to bet on what they have seen rather than what they have heard —how many other people have received the same inside information? How many punters? How many bookmakers? How will the odds be affected?

Therefore most big players’ bets are on the higher class races, better competitions, or premier league games where the form is there for all to see and potential for improvement can be estimated.

Avoiding the Pitfalls

Even if you simply enjoy a sociable bet and have no grand illusion about becoming a high-rolling professional, there are pitfalls for you and your money everywhere.

Few years ago, a Bookmakers Afternoon Greyhound Service (BAGS) race saw three dogs return the same price, co-favourites at 2/1.

For anyone that scribbled “fav” on their betting slip whilst dashing to the counter, it meant they could not win on the race. It was impossible, as their stake was divided between the three co-favourites and, at 2/1, it simply returned them their money.

Meanwhile, if one of the other three dogs in the race had of won they would have lost their money.

Therein the tip of the month is never put “fav” on your betting slip.

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The Online Casino Brings New Pleasures – Check It Out!

Casino, casino, casino — it seems like every time we turn around, someone is talking about the casino life. There’s nothing wrong with that at all, but you have to think about all of the options that you will have at your disposal if you’re really ready to play.

Why wouldn’t you want to think about all of the fun that waits for you? Some people are leery of casino online gambling, worried that someone is going to take their sensitive financial information. That’s just not the case at all. The online gambling industry is heavily regulated by several countries, and there is a high priority placed on internet security. You don’t want to end up being unable to get what you want to get just because hackers and thieves are prowling around, right? Right! You want to still be able to play safely, and that’s why the casinos place so much focus on security. Your information is encrypted and kept away from public access. Even only a handful of casino members will ever see it. Now with the rise of good third party processers, not even the casino will see your financial information in most cases.

If you want to jump into the action quickly, you would do well to look into casino review guides. These aren’t the cheesy one liners that you’re used to seeing. There are veterans of the gambling industry that will tell you exactly where to play, who is paying the best bonuses, and who has the most support.

Support is something that doesn’t get talked about a lot, but it’s really important. You don’t want to just jump into a casino, thinking that nothing is going to go wrong. Just as you think that nothing is going to go wrong, you might just be surprised at everything that can. You want to be able to get fast support if there’s a problem. That’s one of the top marks of a great casino.

Another thing that you want to look for is definitely being able to look for great social interaction. Casinos aren’t just about winning through luck and strategy. It’s a place where like minded people with a wide variety of interests are going to come down and have a good time. If you’re not thinking carefully about the type of experience that you want to have, you just might be pushed out of the running for something really amazing.

Casino gambling can pass away the time and give you a chance at really getting some serious money over time. Don’t think that just because you take some stumbles early in your gambling career that you can’t make up for them later. There’s always a chance to win, and after all — someone has to win, right? Why not make sure that it’s you?

Now is the time to at least look through some review sand see where you want to play. There are a lot of casinos that have tons of games for the players like roulette, so the time to start looking around is now — good luck!

2015 Footballs Biggest Wagers – Advice From Jon Price Handicapper

There are many, big football events during the course of any year and 2015 is no different. With big football events, comes the opportunity to bet and it seems, the bigger the match or tournament, the more excitement there is around the betting markets. However, it’s important not to get carried away when betting on a big football event and waste your money. Take the advice of leading sports handicapper, Jon Price and step back and analyze the match first.

There have already been a number of important football matches in 2015, such as the Champions League final, which was played in June. Arguably the biggest club football match in the world, the Champions League final is a massive occasion, especially when the teams contesting it are Barcelona and Juventus. With so many advertising campaigns out there, it’s very easy to get carried away, bet a big wager and lose your money in the heat of the moment.


Jon Price makes a good point, when he talks about the markets surrounding a big football match and why they should be avoided. Many of these markets are no more than gimmicks, yet have almost become as big as the game itself. Also, betting big money on teams that are considered massive underdogs for the match, is not advised. Take the 2015 Champions League final again, although Juventus are considered a big European team, with a great history, they were still clear underdogs for the Champions League final, against Barcelona. Placing a big wager on Juventus to win, is just too risky and would have led to a big loss. Read More

The Modern Day Strategy to Wagering on NCAA Football

Back in the mid-1990s, the easiest way to wager on NCAA football was placing parlay bets on the top 3 teams in the nation. I believe back then, Nebraska, Florida, and Notre Dame were typically in the top 5. Even though very few gamblers utilized this strategy, those who did were very successful. In 2015 and beyond, I would never consider this approach.

The main reason is because the powerhouse teams in the nineties were stacked with talent. They provided potential prospects the opportunity to play for an elite team, which more visible, and enhanced a college player’s chances of going pro. The recruiting was more “in-house” or within the state, so kids were being groomed from the Pee-Wee Leagues.

betting NCAA football

Over time, smaller Division I colleges were able to steal a player here and there, and these teams were getting better. If we saw small schools have a major upset it was a huge ordeal. Today, it’s still exciting when the smaller teams win, but because of their status in the NCAA. The truth is teams like Boise State and TCU are becoming more consistent. Plus, they are able to compete with the bigger schools.

Wagering in the 21st Century

Instead of sticking with the constant power teams, the best strategy today is to find the best defenses. The old adage “Defense Wins Championships” is more like “Defense Helps You Win Money” in the betting world. One of the most successful game plans I have taken over the last 5 years is playing parlays with the top 3 defense against the 3 worst offenses (for that particular week in the season). However, it’s important to understand that I do not wager like this until at least week 5 of the season. By this time you have a good indication how real the stats are at the time.

For instance, the top 3 defenses in 2014 belonged to Clemson, Penn State, and Stanford (total defense). All three teams held their opponents to under 300 yards per game on average. Most importantly, teams like Clemson hit their stride in the middle of the season. I believe they had a six-game winning streak, and during that time their opponents averaged only 9 points per game. If you paired them with the best defenses against the worst offense during that winning streak, you won money. Read More

Could You Become a Professional Punter?

Betting on all of the games every week might sound like fun, but it’s only fun because you don’t have to stake your livelihood on the outcomes. But for a very small part of the punter pool there is an elite class of bettor that does exactly that. When they win, they win big and they get to enjoy a very nice lifestyle. Yet when they lose, it feels like the worst feeling in the world. They’re not able to take care of their families, and they have to seek other forms of employment to make ends meet. This attracts a very specific personality: the person with everything on the line who doesn’t want to lose anything.

Are you someone that wants to make sure that they win before anything else? Read on to see if you could become a professional punter.

The thing about professional punters of all stripes is that they really read into the “guts” of the game. They study as much data as possible to make their decision. They’re very protective about the information they have, because they don’t want it used against them by rivals. It’s a cutthroat world where a little information could lead to a lot of money. You have to not only have nerves of steel, but you have to trust that your way of doing things is really the best way to do them.

Professional Punter

The ultimate goal for some of these professionals is to get wealthy investors to buy into their offerings. The small time punter won’t be able to get massive gains overnight, but they will be able to rise up the ranks if they’re willing to work for it. In fact, many of the people that rise to the top of the professional gambling field have worked for bookmakers or investment firms. They understand risk and they embrace it instead of being afraid to make moves.

The professionals use algorithms, sophisticated logical and mathematical ways to predict winners.

This is a fascinating world, but it carries some lessons for the average punter looking to make some more money. How can you get more sophisticated about your own bets? If you aren’t crunching statistics, would you be willing to do so? How much money can you put into your operating? The more you bet, the more you can grow your money over time.

Losing the sentiment is very important. The professional punter doesn’t have time to worry about whether they’re loyal to the team they grew up watching. They care about the bottom line, and that’s it. So if you have similar dreams of making it big, you need to make sure that you’re following suit to some degree.